It would be naïve to consider the demographic situation and trends as main factors defining Russia’s interest in invading Ukraine, particularly considering President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, the complexities of historic Russia-Ukraine relations, the pre-war political situation of Ukraine, and the geopolitical role of Ukraine as a main actor in the global food supply chain, among other considerations.Īccordingly, discussing the demographic survival of the country could appear irrelevant in light of ongoing events: a country being devastated by an unjustified invasion and millions of families, women, children, and older people leaving the country for survival, staying in shelters that are being bombarded without consideration, or attempting to live normally in the knowledge that nothing is secure. This war could be especially demographically devastating for Ukraine due to the pre-war situation: Ukraine was already experiencing a declining population, low fertility, and low life expectancy compared to its European neighbors.Īlthough the demographic effects of this war extend beyond Ukraine’s frontiers, this article seeks to roughly quantify the effects to date as well as the potential demographic effects of this war for Ukraine. History has demonstrated that the demographic effects of a war will not only be significant during the war itself but will continue to be impactful for decades into the future. Although it is unknown how this war will evolve or when and how it will end, it is already substantially impacting the population of Ukraine, in part because of Russian ambitions to seize part of Ukrainian territory. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be sealing the tragic fate of a country’s demographic.
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